The coming crisis

1984

Will the economic crisis result in a renewed period of authoritarianism?

A sobering article from the Egypt Independent on the current economic mess.

Amr Adly argues that Egypt is in for a stormy ride, but says that the opposition National Salvation Front are in no position to benefit.

  • “The powers composing the NSF have taken different economic stances,” writes Adly. “Whereas the Nasserists have shown populist leanings that are hardly sustainable, the liberals preferred to keep silent on austerity measures and the IMF loan [agreed by Morsi].”
  • “Given the limitations of the NSF, any socioeconomic explosion is not likely to yield direct political gains to the anti-Brotherhood opposition, despite the fact that the Brothers are in an extremely bad situation. There is a fair chance that Egypt will witness a new wave of sociopolitical violence similar to that of January 1977.”

In a bleak closing passage, Adly raises the prospect of further unrest leading to the creation of a “proto-fascist” regime in order to counteract the violence. Worrying stuff.

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